Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen Prediction

TokyoHard courtOctober 1, 2026

SetProb predicts Carlos Alcaraz to win (78% probability) over Alex Michelsen.

Winner: Carlos AlcarazOur pick: Carlos Alcaraz (76%)Correct

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank #3 Top 10

H2H 1-0

Alex Michelsen

Rank #34 Top 100

78%Probability: Carlos Alcaraz22%

ELO

74%26%

H2H

67%33%

H2H Surface

75%25%

Surface

61%39%

Last 10

56%44%

Season Form

62%38%

Our model: 78%·Odds (Kalshi): 83%·Edge: -5%

Probability→ Favor Carlos Alcaraz (78% prob)Elite