Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Prediction

TokyoHard courtOctober 2, 2026

SetProb predicts Carlos Alcaraz to win (90% probability) over Matteo Arnaldi.

Winner: Carlos AlcarazOur pick: Carlos Alcaraz (90%)Correct

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank #3 Top 10

H2H 2-0

Matteo Arnaldi

Rank #37 Top 100

90%Probability: Carlos Alcaraz10%

ELO

89%11%

H2H

83%17%

H2H Surface

100%0%

Surface

73%27%

Last 10

65%35%

Season Form

74%26%

Our model: 90%·Odds (Kalshi): 93%·Edge: -3%

Probability→ Favor Carlos Alcaraz (90% prob)Elite