Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov Prediction

TokyoHard courtOctober 3, 2026

SetProb predicts Carlos Alcaraz to win (80% probability) over Denis Shapovalov.

Winner: Carlos AlcarazOur pick: Carlos Alcaraz (80%)Correct

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank #3 Top 10

H2H 2-0

Denis Shapovalov

Rank #46 Top 100

80%Probability: Carlos Alcaraz20%

ELO

77%23%

H2H

83%17%

H2H Surface

75%25%

Surface

60%40%

Last 10

54%46%

Season Form

62%38%

Our model: 80%·Odds (Kalshi): 89%·Edge: -9%

Probability→ Favor Carlos Alcaraz (80% prob)Elite