Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction

BeijingHard courtOctober 5, 2026

SetProb predicts Novak Djokovic to win (61% probability) over Daniil Medvedev.

Winner: Novak DjokovicOur pick: Novak Djokovic (55%)Correct

Novak Djokovic

Rank #11 Top 30

H2H 11-5

Daniil Medvedev

Rank #5 Top 10

61%Probability: Novak Djokovic39%

ELO

56%44%

H2H

69%31%

H2H Surface

67%33%

Surface

52%48%

Last 10

53%47%

Season Form

52%48%

Our model: 61%·Odds (Kalshi): 45%·Edge: +16%·Market disagrees

Probability→ Favor Novak Djokovic (61% prob)Close match