Jelena Ostapenko vs Elise Mertens Prediction

BeijingHard courtOctober 5, 2026

SetProb predicts Elise Mertens to win (65% probability) over Jelena Ostapenko.

Winner: Elise MertensOur pick: Elise Mertens (56%)Correct

Jelena Ostapenko

Rank #32 Top 100

H2H 1-1

Elise Mertens

Rank #19 Top 30

35%Probability: Elise Mertens65%

ELO

41%59%

H2H

50%50%

H2H Surface

50%50%

Surface

45%55%

Last 10

41%59%

Season Form

45%55%

Our model: 65%·Odds (Kalshi): 62%·Edge: +3%·Market agrees

Probability→ Favor Elise Mertens (65% prob)Moderate