Who has actually dominated on hard courts in 2026? SetProb's model combines hard court specific ELO ratings with every player's 2026 hard court win loss record to rank the true hard court contenders heading into the US Open.
Updated Aug 27, 2026
ATP & WTA
Min. 10 matches played
🏆 Hard ELO Leader
Carlos Alcaraz
ELO 2192 · 17W-1L
Highest hard court ELO in the field with the best win rate of any top contender. The clear data favorite heading into the US Open.
📊 Volume Leader
Rafael Jodar
ELO 1983 · 32W-11L
More hard court matches played than anyone else in the top 20, moving from Challenger level into ATP draws mid-season. Ranked 13th officially.
🐴 Dark Horse
Toby Samuel
ELO 1947 · 30W-4L
Ranked outside the top 100 but the best win rate in the top 20. Just came through US Open qualifying.
ATP US Open 2026 Hard Court ELO Rankings
#
Player
Hard ELO
2026 W-L
1
Carlos AlcarazRank 3
2192
17-1
2
Arthur FilsRank 11
2057
21-7
3
Novak DjokovicRank 5
2052
8-3
4
Alexander ZverevRank 2
2044
19-8
5
Ben SheltonRank 9
2015
21-7
6
Felix Auger AliassimeRank 4
1987
17-7
7
Rafael JodarRank 13
1983
32-11
8
Taylor FritzRank 10
1980
23-12
9
Lorenzo MusettiRank 14
1980
15-6
10
Frances TiafoeRank 12
1972
24-12
11
Alex De MinaurRank 7
1966
18-9
12
Learner TienRank 15
1966
20-11
13
Daniil MedvedevRank 8
1965
24-9
14
Joao FonsecaRank 26
1965
7-4
15
Brandon NakashimaRank 17HOT
1958
35-13
16
Jakub MensikRank 18
1945
24-10
17
Alexander BublikRank 16
1942
16-6
18
Toby SamuelRank 110DARK HORSE
1947
30-4
19
Jiri LeheckaRank 19
1927
15-9
20
Casper RuudRank 20
1939
9-11
🏆 Hard ELO Leader
Aryna Sabalenka
ELO 2196 · 29W-3L
Highest hard court ELO in the field and the official world No. 1. The clear data favorite heading into the US Open.
🔥 Best Win Rate
Karolina Muchova
ELO 2087 · 18W-2L
A 90% hard court win rate in 2026, the best of any player in the top 20.
🐴 Dark Horse
Sara Bejlek
ELO 1942 · 19W-8L
Ranked outside the top 20 but cracks the ELO top 16 on hard courts this season.
WTA US Open 2026 Hard Court ELO Rankings
#
Player
Hard ELO
2026 W-L
1
Aryna SabalenkaRank 1HOT
2196
29-3
2
Elena RybakinaRank 2
2162
30-7
3
Jessica PegulaRank 3
2144
32-8
4
Iga SwiatekRank 8
2122
25-9
5
Karolina MuchovaRank 7HOT
2087
18-2
6
Victoria MbokoRank 15
2075
20-6
7
Coco GauffRank 4
2067
22-7
8
Elina SvitolinaRank 9
2051
26-7
9
Amanda AnisimovaRank 10
2035
18-9
10
Belinda BencicRank 12
2019
19-6
11
Sorana CirsteaRank 17
2004
21-7
12
Linda NoskovaRank 6
1990
15-6
13
Alexandra EalaRank 18
1978
23-10
14
Marta KostyukRank 11
1968
13-6
15
Mirra AndreevaRank 5
1959
18-8
16
Sara BejlekRank 29DARK HORSE
1942
19-8
17
Naomi OsakaRank 13
1939
10-6
18
Diana ShnaiderRank 16
1938
16-11
19
Madison KeysRank 23
1922
15-9
20
Anna KalinskayaRank 22
1905
13-11
See win probabilities for every US Open 2026 match.