How It Works
SetProb uses a statistical model to calculate win probabilities for every NFL game. Here's what you need to know.
The Probability Model
SetProb uses a multi-factor statistical model to calculate win probabilities for every NFL game. Each team receives a probability score and the two always sum to 100%.
The model considers each team's rating history, current form, and matchup conditions to determine who has the statistical edge. Probabilities are recalculated fresh for every game. No human input, no gut feel.
The model considers each team's rating history, current form, and matchup conditions to determine who has the statistical edge. Probabilities are recalculated fresh for every game. No human input, no gut feel.
Confidence Tiers
Every game is assigned a confidence tier based on how strongly the model favors one team.
Strong Signal
70% and above
The model has high conviction. Multiple factors clearly favor one team.
Moderate
65% to 69%
One team is favored but the game is genuinely competitive.
Low Confidence
Below 65%
No reliable edge detected. The NFL's competitive balance means most games fall here — this is expected, not a gap in the model.
These boundaries reflect where the model's accuracy actually separates into distinct tiers, not a fixed assumption carried over from another sport. The NFL's parity-driven structure means a majority of games land in Low Confidence — that's a real feature of the league, not a shortfall unique to this model.
Accuracy Tracking
Every SetProb NFL prediction is logged and resolved against the actual game result, the same way our tennis predictions are tracked. You'll be able to see exactly how the model has performed, broken down by confidence tier and matchup type.
Low Confidence picks (below 65%) are excluded from the main accuracy stats because at that range the game is essentially too close to call.
The NFL model is newer than our tennis model and its accuracy history is still building as the season progresses. All numbers shown are based on real resolved games, not backtested data.
View Accuracy Dashboard →
Low Confidence picks (below 65%) are excluded from the main accuracy stats because at that range the game is essentially too close to call.
The NFL model is newer than our tennis model and its accuracy history is still building as the season progresses. All numbers shown are based on real resolved games, not backtested data.
My Picks
Use the My Picks button in the top right to save games you want to follow. Add either team from any matchup and share your picks list at the end of the day.
About SetProb NFL
SetProb NFL is an independent football probability tool built for fans who love data. Unlike tipster sites, we show our full accuracy history so you can judge the model yourself. No subscriptions, no hidden picks. Just transparent probabilities for every game.
Disclaimer
SetProb is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Not financial or gambling advice. Probabilities are generated by a statistical model and should not be used as the sole basis for any financial decision. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. No guarantee of accuracy is made or implied. Users assume full responsibility for any decisions made based on this information. SetProb is not affiliated with the NFL or any NFL team.